Deccan Chronicle

Deccan Chronicle

The comments of the post have been deleted from this blog as readers may find the stock extremely cheap at current levels sub Rs 10 , if they only read the post and not the Disclaimer

The stock was advised at Rs 30 and came the Care downgrade. We were sceptical at that point as well due to double standards but when we read news that cars were taken back we felt it was a bit more serious.
We yet felt it was good but had to bite the bullet once it halved.

We advised investors to book a 50% loss at 17odd levels as it had entered a speculative phase and was prudent. It had become speculative stock -one which taught me something new.

Its was going to languish for a long time as one blow came after another.

I felt angry at sending a wrong trade to the followers of the blog and discontinued post this trade.

The management played a game which i still continue to ponder.

I always mention never invest more than 5-7 % of the portfolio in a particular stock and do your own due diligence yet a small part within holds that responsibility and study before buying


On this same blog investors have reaped benefits of multibaggers
This was bad as no investor saw something like this

Updated View on Provogue as of 01-July-2012 : Booking Out of Latest Addittions

Updated View on Provogue as of  01-July-2012 : (Closing out New Positions @ 15.4-Gain of 30%)

http://rupeeneversleeps.blogspot.in/2012/07/updated-view-on-provogue-as-of-01-july.html

I have been a close follower of Provogue but have changed my views over the last few weeksost results and looking at its balance sheet.
I think its prudent to share it as i have my bullishness.

Note:

This is only for investors who have followed my view on Provogue since Feb 2011.
The Sell is for investors who have added following that.
Primarily stock is good but we have reduced exposure considering various parameters

1) Provogue's a good Business even at current price of 15.
2)If i was a promoter would have bought out and delisted
3)Reason for change in View (important)
a)Bought other mispriced stocks
b) Recent results were pathetic and Empty stores on few surveys across stores.

I have reduced my bullishness on Provogue since i last wrote Multibagger @ 12 levels. and continue to hold only older positions.
Our initial cost on Provogue pre-demerger stood at 24.
so if i split at half between Provogue and Prozone each stands at 12odd. (Assigning Base of Rs12 for Prozone)

Yet i was looking on the Market Cap basis and it continues to look cheap on that.
But on free cash flow basis it was far more disappointing looking at its Balance sheet this FY2012.
On Top RESEULTS WERE Pathetic

I am yet to go through the annual report but the fresh buy as of May 2012 stands close as of 01- July  @ 15.4 (again a Gain of 30%)

FDI in Retail is not going to change much immediately, However PHYSCOLOGICALLY stock would move to around Rs20 and at these levels we are looking to sell half of our pre-Demerger positions.(effective adjusted gain of more than 50%)

.

Again i Repeat the rise seen is these stocks is not structural as RBI Has not budged on the rates and is purely Driven due to GLOBAL RISK-ON.
Hence taking partial profits is advisible. 30-50% in two months is a no brainer

GMR Infrastructure Updated- 01-July 2012

Hi,

Welcome back.its been a amazing ride since May14 the last i wrote out here.
"As of Date We have got out of those low beta stocks and have started buying select infra names again."

http://rupeeneversleeps.blogspot.in/2012/07/gmr-infrastructure-updated-01-july-2012.html


 Our Infra stock which we sold off fully in Jan-Feb and re entered at lows again.
3 times in a row consecutively.
Seems amazing. Isnt it???

Its time to sell in the coming rally. Keep half and gradually sell half.
The reason being this is a liquidity push rally ans short sellers are trapped

GMR : We again bought this initially around  20-21 and increased it sub 20levels.
              It has bounced 20% and stands at 25 as of close.
              We are planning to sell 10% at every increase of Re1
              So if you held 1000 shares
              Sell 100 at 26, 100 at 27 till you sell 100 at 30 levels if rally extends that long

Refer to other updated views on IVRCL, NCC, Provogue

Again i Repeat the rise seen is these stocks is not structural as RBI Has not budged on the rates and is purely Driven due to GLOBAL RISK-ON.
Hence taking partial profits is advisible. 30-50% in two months is a no brainer. And indirectly your other half is literally free.

IVRCL Infrastructure Updated- 01-July 2012

Hi,

Welcome back.its been a amazing ride since May14 the last i wrote out here.
"As of Date We have got out of those low beta stocks and have started buying select infra names again."

 Our Infra stock which we sold off fully in Jan-Feb and re entered at lows again.
3 times in a row consecutively.
Seems amazing. Isnt it???

http://rupeeneversleeps.blogspot.in/2012/07/ivrcl-infrastructure-updated-01-july.html

Its time to sell in the coming rally. Keep half and gradually sell half.
The reason being this is a liquidity push rally ans short sellers are trapped

IVRCL: 

Another infra stock we bought at 44 levels and suggested to buy all the way below to 40levels becoz of Essel  groups interest.
(Read Rupeeneversleeps -- Views as of May 2012 ) below link,

We expect a sudden spurt of 7-10% in the next 2 days and suggest existing again 10% on every rise above 56
  So if you held 1000 shares
  Sell 100 at 57, 100 at 62 till you sell 100 at 65 levels if rally extends that long.

Refer to other updated views on GMR, NCC, Provogue

Again i Repeat the rise seen is these stocks is not structural as RBI Has not budged on the rates and is purely Driven due to GLOBAL RISK-ON.
Hence taking partial profits is advisible. 30-50% in two months is a no brainer. And indirectly your other half is literally free

NCC Updated- 01-July 2012

Hi,

Welcome back.its been a amazing ride since May14 the last i wrote out here.
"As of Date We have got out of those low beta stocks and have started buying select infra names again."

 Our Infra stock which we sold off fully in Jan-Feb and re entered at lows again.
3 times in a row consecutively.
Seems amazing. Isnt it???

http://rupeeneversleeps.blogspot.in/2012/07/ncc-updated-01-july-2012.html


Its time to sell in the coming rally. Keep half and gradually sell half.
The reason being this is a liquidity push rally ans short sellers are trapped

NCC : Ncc I did not mention in May as i bought it much later as it fell very sharply to 30 levels.
            Here we suggest existing 10% from current levels of 45.
            Only if IVRCL DEAL is announced will it rise. So rather ride the horse. "IVRCL" 

look at the correlation over the last one year, post the ESSEL News and last one month. There is a standard 10-15% gap which is mostly corrected


Refer to other updated views on GMR, IVRCL, NCC, Provogue

Again i Repeat the rise seen is these stocks is not structural as RBI Has not budged on the rates and is purely Driven due to GLOBAL RISK-ON.
Hence taking partial profits is advisible. 30-50% in two months is a no brainer. And indirectly your other half is literally free.

Rupeeneversleeps -- Views as of May 2012

Dear Readers,

First let me thank everyone for the positive replies send on my mail id.
Please continue to share your feedback (Positive as well as negative) on rupeeneversleeps@gmail.com.

Remember this is not for an Investor who aims to earns 10-15% in the stockmarkets.
Its for someone who understands Businesses and has risk and patience to hold for longer periods of time.

As of today which are safe stocks to earn 15-20% annually for 2-3. years
They wont include names i may mention below in detail. This is for superior returns which may or may not happen. VERY IMPORTANT NOTE-- In my next Post i will list down stock for people who have low risk appetite and yet can enjoy great returns from equities

We got many ivestment trades right throughout this year so we should be happy.
However one two blunders continue to trouble me. But who said one can be 100% right all the time.
The more important part being when one is wrong how much did one end up loosing.

So lets get down to business again. Market mood is pretty bad and thats the time i usually like to write as while sharing my thoughts i get the motivation to buy more and add at lower levels as well.

Today is your lucky day especially if you are loaded up on cash as i am going to pour my views again------------
So dont rush and Buy everything tommorow. Keep Buying for next 2-3 months and literally we would past the storm far behind.

Before that lets get back to last Four months with Rupeeneversleeps

1)Check enroute post of November - http://rupeeneversleeps.blogspot.in/2011/10/enroute.html
This is what i wrote in November.
Im buying only UGLY STOCKS----Infra --Power...Realestate .

Refer to twitter updates to know our historic updates on the same. We have been biuying these 3 sectors from November to January.
2)The best part being we sold all infra companies---Isnt that Amazing??
The only stock we continued to hold was IVRCL (primarily on back of takeover by Essel Group)

This is what i wrote on Feb 13 2012

http://rupeeneversleeps.blogspot.in/2012/02/ugly-ducklings-delivered.html
A possible 20% correction is possible again in individual names in these sectors from recent highs.
We have shifted the money now to lower beta names with dividendyields of 4-6% which also cracked due to the whole market downfall. They offer a great risk return profile.

Im short on Nifty @ 5331 . I dont see a sharp downside for feb but the budget could be a game changer. Its good to hedge buy shorting or buying lower strike puts.

As of Date We have got out of those low beta stocks and have started buying select infra names again.
We have bought GMR again @ 20-21rs levels. Delhi Airport Hike is a big positive.
Its assets are far superior to trade at an Enterprise Value of 10-12billion$
If some one owns this stock for next 4-5 years.
Its gonna deliver 4-5 time Return.
I only hope it stays down this time for long that can accumulate it properly.
We bought it last time @28 all the way to 18 and sold off all @ 27.
I have posted this in the posts below and can even reference dates to check if anyone is suprised.


IVRCL is the second stock we bought. That too Today only @44.6 to be precise.
Analysts love coming and advising a Buy when stock howevers @ 70+levels.
and advise a sell today@45. I think its gonna open down tommorow and even slip to 30s but im in no hurry either. I had to buy the first hit today.
Its good now if it goes lower. Atleast now i have some Big third party who feels the value of this company in distressed times is between (70-105rs)-- Essel group is a smart horse and wont go for a shot unless it sees great potential.
Again Advise is Buy ur first percentage and keep buying every week for next 2 months.
Bought Ivrcl @ 52, @ 42 and @34 ----Sold half @ 52.
Sold more @ 64 after i had written the post.
Now have Reentered @44.6 levels.

We have bought Provogue with Added Conviction Post Demerger Aswell.
Will detail Updated Take on Provogue Below.


Now before i go ahead some quick hits and misses on Individual Names over the Past few months.

Let me start with misses as i hate that part as well

1) Lanco: Has been a disaster for me . I had advised @ 24. Bought more @ 8-10 levels and have bought more @12 recently. My take on Lanco is that of an Asset play.
I had thought the government would do more on Coal considering our huge Coal reserves nevertheless i am wrong.
I had said it was for risky investors but i still hold hope on this.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Provogue Update View (Multibagger @ 12rs)

2) Provogue-- Now it Depends on the Reader how has played this stock with me
Please Read Fundamental View on Provogues Business (Continue holding that view)
I had intially advised a Buy On Provogue in Feb 2011 @ 34 levels considering very cheap valuations.
People have not lost much but have not gained as much i expected in the process
What we did??? All info can be crosschecked from this blog and twitter Posts
a) Bought  initially @ 34
b) Sold half @ 45 (it moved in a week post my blogpost) actually next day it hit an Upper Circuit
c) Bought @ 24-25
d) Bought Much more @17 (suprisingly near low)--- Lucky me (i was literally shocked to see 17)
e) Our Average Came to 24-25

Prior to demerger advised twice @ 26 and even @ 30 levels

Closed @34rs prior to Demerger So in the process many Buys and Sells---

Now Post Relisting Dont know Market Went Mad and Halved the Stock???
The answer should make you Buy the Stock understanding the Company.
Myth--Capital reduction reduced ShareCapital by half so Stock should trade by Half
Fact--- When there is a Capital Reduction the number of shares also reduce and primarily a sharecapital is used when a company comes out of BIFR.

For example: Share Capital reduced by 10 to 1 so stock falls from 100 to 10. Here if you are holding 100 shares u will get only 10 shares and 90 shares will be reduced.

Another example: When the Face Value of share reduces from 10 to 5 one gets 2 shares for everyone share held so total shares double and price halves.

This is a different type of share reduction due to shiting of assets. Many of you would have got an headache but i will simplify it now.

Important Data to Understand.

See Provogue(standalone Business profit for fy12 around 35crs)------Pre Demerger
Profit remains same ----------------------------------------around 35crs)       Post Demereger

Market Cap @34 (Day it went Demerger)-----------388crs-------------Pre Demerger
Market Cap @12-------------------------------------------138crs-------------Post Demerger

So  one can do the maths
One Paid 10 times+ Price earnings Pre demerger
And now it trades @ 4 TIMES price earnings at rs12.

One could argue Prozone etc (adjusted value)but Prozone was an added prize.
So you say a Brand like Provogue trades @ 185crs marketcap
And an Cooker company Hawkings at 3000ccrs marketcap.

Provogue has to get it act to gether yet @185crs is Dirt Cheap.
Any PE INVESTORS reading please contact me i have a complete turnartound map for this co to trade at much superior levels.

Its Patience v/s Fear. And dear promoters have been buying in the range of 20-30predemerger @ at 15levels post demerger.

Market is Bad otherwise would have grapped it all in one go

We have bought Provogue with Added Conviction Post Demerger@12.3levels and intend to buyt more if it goes to 10 levels

Will come back soon as market stays down and i love distressed buys.
Good luck
Dont put all eggs in one basket.
Diversify across sectors and stocks and keep

UGLY DUCKLINGS $$$$$$$$$$$$ Delivered.

UGLY DUCKLINGS $$$$$$$$$$$$ Delivered.

Check enroute post of November - http://rupeeneversleeps.blogspot.in/2011/10/enroute.html
This is what i wrote in November.
Im buying only UGLY STOCKS----Infra --Power...Realestate .

Refer to twitter updates to know our historic updates on the same. We have been biuying these 3 sectors from November to January.


We started Buying likes of gmr @ 26 all the way to lows of rs 18 -- Sold off all @27

Bought Ivrcl @ 52, @ 42 and @34 ----Sold half @ 52. Will continue holding rest

Bought Indiabulls Realestate (before demerger) @ 112 @ 72 and doubled the
position @ 61. Today standalone realestate is @ 74 (close to our cost). We continue holding as we still see value from 2yrs.
Indiabulls Infra & Power shares are literally free as of today.

Bought Gvk from Rs 22 all the way to Rs 10. At one point i thought i had caught the average physological bug. We are bullish on certain companies even though we sold off few. These are some of the names we kept buying.Not to forget the wrong call on lanco. We bought that too @ 10 and 12 levels. Our average cost on Lanco now stands at 18rs.


Today some sanity seems to have prevailed. Only reason the stocks have doubled is that they were sold to ridiculous levels. We doubled the positions at the right time (Luck had its way too i guess). I expected a sharp bounce but not in January itself.
We went overweight on Infra and now have been booking out of stocks which delivered huge gains. Our cost has effective come down and offers great comfort in this space after long.
A possible 20% correction is possible again in individual names in these sectors from recent highs.

We have shifted the money now to lower beta names with dividendyields of 4-6% which also cracked due to the whole market downfall. They offer a great risk return profile.

Im short on Nifty @ 5331 . I dont see a sharp downside for feb but the budget could be a game changer. Its good to hedge buy shorting or buying lower strike puts.

Cheers
Aditya